Time decay at work

Here we are, almost two weeks after I wrote the non-slam-dunk calls you see in the post below.  As you can see, last Wednesday and Thursday they were trading for around $2 or so per contract, and now they are doing exactly the same, with the underlying trading even a little higher today than it was on those days.  That's because the clock is ticking, the hour is getting late, and people are leaving the party.  Does anyone really think UVXY will perform that parlor trick (fetching $52 per share on the sale block), if it hasn't done so yet?  Traders talk with their money, and the money is saying "no."  (Bids are $1.97 on this nonsense, as I type.)

Last night I had to do some homework, though.  After the price action in UVXY yesterday (and a friendly "message" from my broker), I realized that to keep my broker happy (I tend to bite off a little more than I should - my eyes are bigger than my stomach), I should think about rolling.  Why roll?  "To avoid being assigned" is a classic answer, but I have another answer.  Two answers, really.  One is the obvious:  To buy time.  The other is to reduce the number of contracts, and thus the potential liability (which will make the broker scrutinize other people and leave me alone.)  I don't mind waiting a little longer to make money.  Sleeping well for seven or fourteen extra nights to realize a profit is a good tradeoff for sleeping poorly and facing some kind of adverse action, so if it's a difference of just a few weeks, depending on how much money we're talking about, I'll choose to wait.

(Oh yes, I also snuck in some short 70 July 24th puts on SVXY yesterday and the day before, and that had something to do with my name popping up on a list of people my broker felt compelled to communicate with yesterday.)

So anyway, I priced some farther-dated UVXY calls at various strikes, and looked at them again this morning, and was all ready to do it if necessary.  Not necessary, as of now.  But maybe I should wait until Janet Yellen speaks before publishing this. Yellen, what are you sellin'?  What happens after Janet speaks, there's just no tellin'.