Ringing the register, closing the till. Til next week. Happy weekend to all fellow traders - may you celebrate your good trades, or forget your bad ones and look forward to future good ones.
Friday, September 18, 2020
I simply hoped I wouldn't botch it
Wednesday, September 9, 2020
Should I just give up?
I think of myself as someone who makes reasonable efforts to keep up, or who really just stays near the forefront effortlessly through my default state of absorbing and reading during each waking moment the same way I breathe on a constant basis (doing the latter even in my sleep), but obviously I have slipped behind if I failed to notice "Fintok." If the financial advice is now being dispensed on TikTok, I should just turn in my keycard right now.
Had it not been for @chigrl letting me on this, I'd forever be uninformed. Financial community - Stop the ride! Let me off!
Friday, September 4, 2020
Another day, another 96 cents (per contract)
Instead of combing the halls of Twitter for wit and wisdom, today I'll simply paste a copy of my doings that turned out to provide a little Friday paycheck (but could have sent me down the hall for a visit to the Principal's office or at least a red-ink reconciliation in the accountant's office.) I went out on a limb yesterday and came back in, and I brought back a little bit from my hunting and gathering expedition.
The profitable life isn't a predictable life, and while I could just pick up pennies in front of the steamroller as some underwear trader accused me of last week, it's not my style, so I prefer to suffer through middle-of-night future-checking and pre-market wake-up times, and also daytimes sometimes too stressful to remember to eat, so I can go for the dollars and not the pennies.
Thursday, September 3, 2020
Ramp or plunge?
The age-old question plaguing weary traders at the end of the day when all the coffee has been run through and the dreams have been dashed (or fulfilled with maniacal loud proclamations) - will the day end in a ramp or a fizzle?
Here, some keyboards have been slammed and a few curse words uttered. Would that be surprising?
Looks like both Pete Phillips (@pistolsout) and dave dave dave (@davedavedave224) were right. And the majority of voters (including myself, voting without looking just so I could open up the poll results for display) were wrong.
Wednesday, September 2, 2020
Commentary not investment advice
A reminder from Jeremy is that his commentary is not investment advice.
Tuesday, September 1, 2020
Where she stops, nobody knows
As after-hours trading is a little elevated, Twitter pundit "D" (@FigureNyenterms) of the inscrutable handle and display name provides a hazy, clouded magic-8-ball-style prognostication for the morning (I think.) Since there wasn't much punctuation, his (or her) reckoning is open to interpretation.
Now, I don't know who would be in their pajamas at four in the afternoon, other than those who never shed them throughout the duration of the day. And I strongly suspect that "D" is, in fact, in pajamas if anyone is. But the important point here is the sentiment: That the open will be lower tomorrow. We all put our pajamas on one leg at a time, and none of us really know what's going to happen, but there's a good chance "D" will wake up doing the "Told You So!" strut.
**Edit: Clarification from FigureNyenterms says that he is trying to outsmart the pajama traders who are interpreted to be voting with their trades for a lower open, while he sees the open higher. **
Monday, August 31, 2020
What's better than premium? DOUBLE premium
Two scoops, please. That's what UVXYTrader (@michaellistman) said this morning when he got a scoop of put premium and a scoop of call premium on his ice cream cone. With UVXY trading at approximately 21.90, he brought in 86 cents of premium per contract on some puts for the 21 strike expiring this Friday and 1.77 per contract on the associated calls, all of which he sold short. Let's see what happens for the rest of the week and how this trade comes to a close through some method or another. 2.63 (or $263 considering the type of contract these were) was deposited into his account, per contract (of which the quantity is unknown or let's say, it's not going to be discussed here, at any rate.)
Later in the week we will discuss the eventual resolution of this contract, wishing the best possible outcome for UVXYTrader.
Friday, August 28, 2020
Math Wins
While "Math Wins" (AKA "Let's Move Money") is looking for $UVXY to rip, I'm always looking for it to slip.
Here's my math for today:
While thieves are looting from one door of your business, as long as you are ringing the register to a greater degree at the other door, you can close up shop at the end of the day and count your profits.
Thursday, August 27, 2020
That's a fast steamroller
It may not have been me, but I feel quite sure that some people picked up more than pennies today (and that others came out "flat," and by that I don't mean no profit or loss - I mean what the steamroller does to you.)
Below I get schooled by a 15-year-old hedge fund manager:
Who has stories today about surviving (or not) the VIX carnage?
Wednesday, August 26, 2020
grapes trades on
Party on, Wayne. Party on, Garth. Trade on, grapes.
Watch this space to see if and what I feel like talking about. Let's talk first about the conversation I see tonight on Twitter.
This man, who goes by the name of "Bat," if I remember correctly, has expressed his observation that the VIX is acting in an uncharacteristic manner this afternoon. Fellow trader with a cat for an avatar postulates that the Fed will be the arbiter of which way the horse manure drops when it does. Plop, plop, plop - VIX will do the drop, drop, drop. Let's all crowd around (at a safe distance) to see it happen tomorrow.
Friday, May 1, 2020
Mayday
Starting TODAY! (edit as of August 2020 - don't go look for those tabs - they are currently down for repair, but will be back up eventually.)
Friday, March 8, 2019
Clean slate
Thursday, August 16, 2018
A narrow escape
A lesson in how NOT to trade. Multiple overnights with naked shorts, and much spinning of plates (the calls), which did actually net profits for me, but ultimately put me in line for more risk than originally intended.
August 9th -16th
Sold short 3,000 UVXY at 8.20, credit $24,594.37. Bought qty 30 UVXY Aug 10th 8 strike calls for 0.25, debit: -$770.37. Max risk: -$170.37
Sold all UVXY Aug 10th 8 strike calls for 0.645, credit $1,915.52. Profit booked: $1,145.15
Bought qty 30 UVXY Aug 17th 8 strike calls for 1.00, debit: -$3,020.37. New max risk -$1,275.22
Sold all UVXY Aug 17th 8 strike calls for 1.18, credit $3,519.52. Profit booked: $499.15.
Bought qty 30 UVXY Aug 24th 8 strike calls for 1.12, debit: -$3,380.37. New max risk -1,136.07
No calls held at many points; risk unlimited.
Sold all UVXY Aug 24th 8 strike calls for 1.68, credit $5,019.50
Bought to cover 3,000 UVXY at 9.179, debit -$27,541.95
Grand outcome: +$338.85
Wednesday, June 20, 2018
See the Completed Collar tab
I do try to finesse the entries so that I gain an advantage by waiting on either the shares or the calls, and usually that ends up working against me. But sometimes it helps, as in June 18th. I picked up a lot of gravy by hanging back a while.
The order (of the shares and calls) is not necessarily indicative of the order I executed the trades. I might record them in either order, even though I executed them the other way around. It's hard enough to find and record all of this, and I'm not trying to recreate it by the second. Although of course the basic strategy (opening both and then closing both) is recorded as it was actually done. Usually I open the shares first, and then the calls, but it could be the other way around. At times I have gotten greedy and traded the calls out in the middle of the trade, allowing the shares to ride naked before covering them with replaced calls. This is detailed, of course, if it was done. Results have varied (beneficial or not beneficial to me.) Many times I close the calls and let the shares ride for a few minutes to the remainder of the day. Occasionally I have closed all the shares and then re-opened them for a day trade, although I don't think I've done that without having ditched the calls first. The last thing I want is some depreciating calls hanging around, so I tend to get rid of them ruthlessly (there could be instances in which they increase in value, but I don't think I've encountered that in a while, or if so, I just looked the other way, because I didn't want to see what I missed out on, and had already moved on to the next trade.)
Here is a clip of the tab which you really should be reading if you want to follow along. The tab is right here, if you're having trouble finding it.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018
Another winner. What's for dinner?
The tl/dr is:
Thursday, May 17, 2018
Half is better than nothing
I bought back the puts, I sold off the calls. The shares didn't exactly go over the falls...
[end poem]
... so I just covered them.
Monday, May 14, 2018
How to make $1,000 in three easy steps
Step 1: Buy 20 UVXY calls at the 12.00 strike, May 18th expiration for $0.75 each. The multiplier is 100, so this will cost you $1,500.
Step 2: Sell 2,000 shares of UVXY short at 12.30. This requires enough margin to be permitted to do that.
Step 3: Sell short 20 UVXY puts at the 11.50 strike, May 18th expiration for $0.45 each. This will bring in $900.
You've now only effectively paid $600 for the options (setting the credit received for the puts against the cost of the calls), and you have thirty cents of profit you could reap on the shares, if you actually exercised those calls to cover the shares at the strike of 12.00, which comes out to $600 coming in to offset the price paid, so that's all you'll see, worst-case. A total wash, with zero paid and zero lost.
Yet, should things go your way, you'll see a profit of up to $1,000. Should UVXY end up below your put strike price, and the shares end up put to you, you'd use them to cover your short, so that's 12.30 minus 11.50, or a $1,600 profit on the shares, and as detailed above, you paid $600 for the combo of puts/calls.
Max loss: $0
Max gain: $1,000
Expiration date: May 18th
Friday, April 27, 2018
Follow-up to yesterday's post - completion of trade
April 27th: Quantity 17 of April 27th UVXY 114.50 calls sold for 0.75, or debit $1,261.20.
1,700 UVXY bought to cover at 15.015, credit $25,530.45.
Grand total for the trade: -$277
Note that original risk was $1,356.70, reduced sequentially to $659.70. Calls were closed earlier than shares on expiration day to maximize recovery of the shares without degradation of option prices counteracting that recovery, in order to seek final outcome better than the max loss of $659.70 if options had been exercised.
See detail:
See new tab at top "COMPLETED COLLAR (or other spread) HISTORY" for ongoing summaries of collars without detail and narration.
Thursday, April 26, 2018
April 18th collar started, expiring April 27th
April 18th: Sell short 1,700 UVXY at 14.61. Credit: $24,838.07
April 18th: Buy 17 UVXY April27th 14.50 strike calls for 0.90 each. Debit: $1,543.70
Initial risk: Cost of calls minus potential profit on shares if exercised: 0.11 per share profit would be $187. Total risk: $1,356.70
April 19th: Sold above calls for 1.29. Profit booked: $635.
April 19th: Bought same calls for 1.12, cost $1,917.70. New risk, minus profits: $1,095.70
April 20th: Sold above calls for 1.37. Profit booked: $397.
April 20th: Bought same calls for 1.25, cost $2,138.73. New risk, minus profits: $919.73
April 24th: Sold 10 of the above calls for 2.33. Profit booked: $1,062.
April 24th: Bought same 10 calls for 2.05, cost $2.060.12. Add to cost of other 7 calls bought on the 20th for 1.25, cost of $880.66, for total cost of $2,940.78. New risk, minus profits: $659.70
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
All in a day's collar
In this case, I decided to send $25,271.50 onto the playing field in the form of 1,600 short shares of UVXY from 15.21, and 16 long UVXY calls, expiration April 20th, strike 15. How much did I actually spend, though?
Cash is never spent on short shares; rather, an amount of cash equivalent to the value of the shares must be present in the trader's account as collateral for the borrowed shares, which eventually must be returned. Here's how it works: Upon my request, the brokerage locates and makes available to me shares that will be sold to someone else in the pool of traders lined up to buy, with the notation that they are out on loan from me, and I must return them to the brokerage, no matter how I have to get them and no matter what I have to pay. When they're sold to someone else (instantaneously), the proceeds of that transaction are deposited in my account. In order for the brokerage to feel good about participating in this hot-coal walk with me, I must keep the ever-changing market value of the shares in my account all the while, so there's no worry that I'll be unable to obtain them and return them to the brokerage. Here's the beautiful thing, though, or it could be ugly, depending on circumstances, but it's the entire essence of short-selling: No matter what the price of the shares to the buyer, all the brokerage wants back from me is the shares, so the trade can be closed and we can pretend nothing ever happened. When I short-sell them at 15.21, as I did, I can pay the same to buy them back, or I can pay more, or I can pay less. Paying more would satisfy the brokerage, but I'd be disappointed because with a credit of 15.21 per share and then a debit (to buy the shares to cover) any higher, I'd end up with less money in my account than when I started. Paying less would be great, though - what a dream it would be to pay $14, $13, $12, or even $10 per share to close the transaction. Why stop at $10? Short-sellers always dream about paying as close to $0 as possible. They want to pay 1 cent, ideally. In my 1-cent dream, I'd get a big credit from the brokerage for short-selling the securities, but I'd only have to pay a little to end my obligation regarding the shares (to close the trade by buying to cover), so I'd come out way ahead. But realistically, paying anything less than the amount of the credit received is the hope of any short-seller at the outset of a transaction. Of course, there are risks. More on that below.
So, at the push of a button on my desk, $24,330.30 in fresh dollars flowed into my portfolio, as 1,600 shares of UVXY flew somewhere else at the speed of light, bought by someone else, but requiring return to the brokerage like a library book you can entrust to any friend or even a stranger but you need to take back because it's your name on record regarding responsibility for that valuable book. Obviously, I hoped the share price would decline so I could return the UVXY by paying less for it than the credit I had just received, and keep the extra as profit.
Not wanting to take on unlimited risk, though, I decided to pay for a contract that would limit my loss, and I chose an expiration and a strike price for the contract. The calls cost $941.20 total. But I didn't stand to lose all that, should my trade not go as hoped. That's because holding them conferred to me the right to buy up to 1,600 shares of UVXY at the contracted price of $15.00 each. I had sold UVXY short at 15.21, and exercising the call options would mean I'd realize a profit of 21 cents per share if using the calls to buy to cover all 1,600 shares. Profit on the shares would total $336, and setting that against the $941.20 paid for the calls would mean my loss, in this event, would be $605.20.
As seen in the chart, at 10:27 AM, I sold short 1,600 UVXY at the price of 15.21. Watching and waiting for a drop in price for calls, I put off the associated call purchase until my nerves wore out, and I bought 16 UVXY April 20th 15 calls at 11:11 AM. Here was my plan, and if you follow my blog posts you will understand the reverse collar strategy: I hoped to sell puts for a price that would reimburse me for the purchase of the calls, and also allow me to make a profit on the short shares. The strategy is a calculation limiting my profit to a capped amount, but limiting my loss so that I won't take any loss at all, should the security move in the direction I had not hoped. To be precise, I would not need to sell puts that would bring in the exact 0.58 per contract that the calls cost me, because as mentioned way above, there was a profit on shares baked into the calls, in the event that I'd have to exercise the calls (due to a rise in UVXY above my shorting price.) In this case I could subtract the 0.21 profit from the 0.58 paid and I'd need to sell puts for only 0.37 at the strike of 15 to set up my reverse collar as a guaranteed max-loss-of-$0 outcome for me. But of course, I was not going to sell them at the 15 strike unless I could get a lot more for the puts, because that example calculation would not allow me to make any profit at all, so my goal was to sell puts at any lower strike, like 14.50, 14, or whatever market movements would allow, and ideally, bring in enough to cover my call expense, or more.
Let me say briefly that in my history of setting up these reverse collars, I don't think I've ever held them all the way to expiration of the options. But I've completely set them up numerous times. At least as many times, I only set up the calls before abandoning the search/wait for puts and closed the whole thing out. And frequently, I do it right away, because I don't want to find out what subsequent days will do to the expensive calls I just purchased. I don't really want to pay for calls and let them turn into lost money for me.
In this case. at 3:00 PM I decided that making $600 in just a few hours was too good to pass up, so I covered the shares for 14.57 and I sold the calls for 0.35, bringing in a net profit of $619.14. Then, also as seen in the chart above and in the graphic below, at 3:23 PM, I decided to start the whole thing all over again by shorting the same number of shares from 14.27, but then abandoned the whole plan at lightning speed after looking at call prices I didn't like, and I covered the shares just 14 minutes later for 14.20 (and how about my capture of the day's low in doing that?) That added another hundred dollars to the pile, and my take for the day was $720.
How does this compare to my plan? Well, I never completely set it up, but I was aiming for the 14.50 puts, and wanted to sell them for the exact 0.58 I had paid for the calls, although I was willing to be flexible. This is what the prices looked like for the puts I hoped to sell, while I checked back throughout the day. 38 cents wasn't good enough when I really wanted 58. Although, if you are really a math wizard, by the time you are finished reading this whole article, you'll see that I could have just taken the below-depicted 38 cents and sealed the deal for the same outcome I eventually got (the difference being I'd have to wait until expiration to close the whole trade.)
Below is a chart of the price of those puts throughout the day:
Had I waited, and had I been the trader to catch the tippy-top of the price action in UVXY April 20th 14.50 strike puts, I could have received 0.72 per contract for the 16 I intended to sell, or more realistically, it looks like it was hovering at the 0.65 level for a while, which was more than I needed to reimburse me for the call purchase, and enable a 0.71 per share profit on the shares, which comes out to $1,136, plus any gravy on the options. At 72 cents, it would be about 14 cents profit on the calls and puts netted together, or and additional $224. I am really counting my chickens here, eh? Or telling a theoretical fish story.
It comes down to this: I was looking at a maximum of about $1,100 profit on this deal, not including the extra I might have gotten with that great 65 or 72 cent premium on the puts, bringing it up to $1,300 or so, but the reverse collar, even when perfectly set up, also conveys a risk of making no profit at all, or a profit anywhere between nothing and the max determined at the time of complete setup. And I'd have to wait days to get the max profit or NO PROFIT, being locked in if wanting to try for max profit, had I set up the complete collar. I decided to take the immediate $600 and run. And then add a bonus to nudge up the day's total.